Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-30 2.781755 3.253692 3.777296 4.400743 5.122326 5.930715 6.904569
2025-12-07 2.013028 2.632247 3.394345 4.398778 5.685262 7.275116 9.386419
2025-12-14 1.533560 2.198937 3.090787 4.367961 6.143763 8.518521 11.927534
2025-12-21 1.227075 1.902849 2.876448 4.371536 6.597999 9.777059 14.643853
2025-12-28 1.095750 1.817146 2.922519 4.723697 7.566050 11.854176 18.781701
2026-01-04 0.939637 1.656627 2.818538 4.816296 8.137859 13.402491 22.326357
2026-01-11 0.816221 1.522062 2.725942 4.899515 8.688455 14.967302 26.080325
2026-01-18 0.706752 1.388949 2.609379 4.915245 9.114766 16.365764 29.719670
2026-01-25 0.610127 1.260154 2.476628 4.875418 9.427313 17.594118 33.201858
2026-02-01 0.501418 1.087530 2.233979 4.591240 9.246992 17.917293 35.092298
2026-02-08 0.426612 0.968913 2.074661 4.439078 9.286754 18.633012 37.773655
2026-02-15 0.375324 0.890243 1.981957 4.403658 9.545115 19.783088 41.408396
2026-02-22 0.348129 0.862005 1.994334 4.598635 10.320543 22.080359 47.682111
2026-03-01 0.306240 0.792664 1.907883 4.569811 10.627017 23.484013 52.348429
2026-03-08 0.269476 0.728432 1.822214 4.528996 10.901384 24.856084 57.128710
2026-03-15 0.240424 0.677643 1.759124 4.529744 11.267941 26.469100 62.630849
2026-03-22 0.234803 0.686738 1.841942 4.893048 12.528277 30.207693 73.315720
2026-03-29 0.215592 0.655304 1.818271 4.988469 13.159285 32.593903 81.200668
2026-04-05 0.198057 0.625065 1.792586 5.074418 13.778334 35.025615 89.484579
2026-04-12 0.179581 0.588349 1.743465 5.090646 14.222170 37.091051 97.136698
2026-04-19 0.161119 0.547872 1.677141 5.049442 14.509815 38.807424 104.135880
2026-04-26 0.136461 0.482696 1.529270 4.755518 14.075920 38.656530 106.409885
2026-05-03 0.119332 0.438210 1.434215 4.598128 13.994940 39.401868 111.086261